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Surge in prices: A farmer sprinkles chemical fertiliser on a crop of finger millet on the outskirts of Bangalore in India. Rising fertiliser costs due to supply constraints will impact CPO prices. — AFP

WHILE crude palm oil (CPO) prices hit a record high on Wednesday, with three-month futures prices closing at RM5,015 per tonne, market analysts still expect CPO prices and plantation earnings to decline in 2022.

UOB Kay Hian Research maintains its “underweight” rating on the plantation sector, and expressed its concern over the sustainability of the current demand as the inventory in India and China has been replenished. The research unit is keeping its CPO price forecast for 2021 and 2022 at RM3,300 and RM2,800 per tonne respectively, but sees upside potential due to tight global edible oil supplies while demand is still relatively stable despite high prices.

UOB Kay Hian Research notes that for January to September 2021, the average price reported by Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) was at RM4,207 per tonne and the average for 2021 could come higher given CPO prices were traded between RM4,747 to 5,072 per tonne for Oct 1 to Oct 12.

However, the net price that will be reported by most of the plantation companies will still be lower than RM4,000 per tonne due to the forward sales contracts and the impact from the exports levy and duty in Indonesia.

For companies under UOB Kay Hian Research’s coverage, only Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd managed to report average selling prices (ASPs) closer to the CPO price reported by MPOB.

The research unit also points out that the surprise import duty cut by India on vegetable oils on Wednesday would be supportive to the palm oil market, as the country is the largest export market for palm oil.

“This is the fifth change to Indian vegetable oils’ import duty in 2021 with the new duties on CPO, refined palm oil, soybean oil and sunflower oil reduced to the lowest level since 2015.

High inflation as a result of high food prices and weaker-than expected local oilseeds supplies could have triggered this change,” says UOB Kay Hian Research.

Indian edible oil import for September 2021 was a record-high at 1.7 million tonnes (66% higher year-on-year) and this also led to a record high stock position of about two million tonnes at ports and pipelines.

For now, UOB Kay Hian Research believes CPO prices may sustain at the current levels due to the continued disappointing palm oil production as yield recovery from the previous drought is taking longer than expected and there is a lack of workers in Malaysia.

Other edible oil supplies remain tight as well and the upcoming La Nina posts another risk to the next planting season in South America.

Should the high prices remain for longer periods, companies such as Kim Long Resources Bhd, Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd


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