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DESPITE making a strong comeback in its earnings for the third quarter of the financial year 2021 (Q3’21), the looming risk of FGV Holdings Bhd being delisted in 2022 continues to affect analysts’ rating on the stock.
In Q3’21, the planter posted the highest quarterly profit since its listing, beating market expectations.
Buoyed by the bullish crude palm oil (CPO) prices, the group’s net profit jumped to RM399.39mil for the quarter under review from RM136.89mil in the same quarter last year on the back of a higher revenue of RM5.31bil.
Analysts generally are mixed on FGV’s prospects despite the commendable Q3’21 results, citing their concerns on the delisting of one of the world’s largest CPO producers from Bursa Malaysia.
Several brokerage houses also highlighted the planter’s narrowing public shareholding spread this week.
It has fallen significantly below the stock exchange’s 25% public spread requirement for a listed company.
As at Nov 25, FGV’s public shareholding spread had dropped further to 13.19% compared with 13.47% as at Aug 25, thus putting the group closer to the risk of being delisted.
While Bursa Malaysia has given the time extension until Feb 3 next year for FGV to meet with the requirement, analysts say FGV still does not seem to have a proper plan to address the shortfall in the public spread situation.Felda oil palm plantation
“Perhaps FGV will consider seeking for a further time extension or proposing for a lower public shareholding spread from Bursa Malaysia on this matter,” says an analyst with a local brokerage.
FGV’s controlling shareholder, the Federal Land Development Authority (Felda), has also indicated its intention of not retaining the listing status of FGV.
“The odds of delisting FGV are high, given Felda’s stated intention.
“The share price of FGV could be supported by the potential privatisation offer by Felda,” says CGS-CIMB Research.
The research house has raised its financial year 2021 (FY21)-FY23 earnings per share forecasts to reflect the higher CPO prices and milling margin for FGV.
“However, we keep our hold call on FGV given the risk of delisting,” it says.
To reflect this risk, CGS-CIMB Research has kept FGV’s target price at RM1.43.
This is a 10% premium over the last offer price of RM1.30 by Felda.
“We see the share price supported by a potential privatisation offer and forecast a 3% FY21 yield,” adds CGS-CIMB Research.
Aminvestment Research is maintaining a “sell” call on FGV with a lower fair value of RM1.20 from RM1.25 previously.
“Although FGV’s nine-month FY21 net profit exceeded our forecast and consensus estimates, we believe that it would be difficult for FGV to maintain its profitability in FY22 due to lower palm product prices and higher costs of production,” says the research firm.