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aws账号( - What the 2022 markets are telling us



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IN financial markets, the trend was undoubtedly your friend in 2021.

Vaccinations meant economies could come out of pandemic-induced lockdowns while fiscal stimulus produced a rapid rebound in employment, propelling stock markets to record highs.

In fixed income, central banks maintained their quantitative-easing programmes, leaving bond yields becalmed. Next year looks a lot trickier.

Inflation is accelerating everywhere, and the supply-chain disruptions that contributed to rising consumer prices aren’t fixed.

Labour-market dislocation has given employees bargaining power for the first time in years. Equities are starting to look overheated, particularly if central banks have to react to price pressures by tightening monetary conditions in the coming months.

And the Omicron variant shows that the coronavirus remains a clear and present danger. Fear could replace greed as the dominant market driver in 2022.

The total value of global equity markets, which reached a record of US$120 trillion (RM507 trillion) and has doubled from the low point reached at the start of the pandemic in March 2019. The rise has been relentless.

United States technology companies have played a big role in turbocharging the gains; Apple Inc alone contributes almost US$3 trillion (RM12.7 trillion) to the global total, with Microsoft Corp and Inc between them adding a further US$4.1 trillion (RM17.3 trillion).

But the prospect of the Federal Reserve (Fed) turning off the monetary spigot has divided strategists; their estimates for the S&P 500 index at the end of next year range from 4,400 to 5,300, a 20% gap that Bloomberg News reports is the second-widest in a decade.

While the highest number would mean a 14% advance from current levels, the low forecast predicts a 6% retreat.

Competition time

Government bonds have offered scant competition to stocks. But that’s starting to change. Although the United States Treasuries have remained calm amid the Fed’s hawkish pivot, there’s been a steady rise from the low yields seen during the early stages of the pandemic.Bonds yielding more than equities has been the historic status quo, but in the new normal of ginormous stimulus it is quite rare. Equities are no longer the obvious place to park money now that fixed-income returns are starting to stir. Rising consumer prices have rattled policy makers.

What looked like a temporary jump in reaction to supply shocks coinciding with post-lockdown spending rebounds and an energy crunch has transmogrified into a more worrying trend.

Inflation expectations matter as much as the actual rate of change of consumer prices. If those expectations start to become untethered from the 2% pace widely targeted by central banks, policy makers may endanger the nascent growth recovery by raising interest rates before the economy is sufficiently robust to withstand higher borrowing costs.


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