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DESPITE the focus on emissions reductions and a lengthening list of countries that have made net zero targets, we expect that CO2 emissions from energy combustion will increase by 2.5% in 2022 to new record levels as some economies recover more fully while others push for growth. While leaders at COP26 pledged to strengthen 2030 emissions targets by the end of 2022 rather than waiting for the formal “stock taking” process, there are significant risks to domestic environmental policy agendas from elections in 2022.
During COP26, 100 countries committed to 30% reduction in methane emissions by 2030 (with some notable exception) which should further bolster interest in having fossil fuel market differentiated by their associated upstream carbon intensities. Record high carbon prices in the UK and Europe are at levels that are triggering market intervention reviews, though we expect that they will step back from recent highs.
Midterm elections in the US could derail the Biden Administration’s environmental agenda, while Australia’s opposition party is looking to oust the more conservative government by prioritizing more vital environmental targets. These elections are reminders that “all politics are local” and the fates of global agreements are often determined by domestic elections, public sentiment, and policy shifts.
Strong power prices boost incentives for renewables installations, but can they deliver? Input costs and policy risks still loom
Strong power prices have pushed renewable power margins to historically high levels across major markets and boosted prospects for faster installation growth in 2022. This is slightly ironic since the underperformance of renewables was a key factor behind the surge in global gas and power prices in the first place.
Despite an ~10% increase in commissioning costs due to historically high raw materials prices and labor issues, Platts Analytics expects solar PV capacity additions will increase by 4% in 2022, while onshore wind installations increase by 1%. However, capacity growth is predicted to decline for offshore wind, which will contract by 25% in 2022 after a strong 2021 due to China's phase out of subsidies.
More broadly, the world will need to learn to develop policies that balance the need to add zero carbon electricity supply with the cost of the dispatchability/availability of oftentimes intermittent renewable power. These are risks that that renewables uptake will be increasingly associated with energy shortfalls and resulting high prices – and we will be looking to see if policymakers start trading off energy transition for reliable supply.
Carmakers’ shifting preference for EVs to become even more apparent; Light Duty EV sales to a new record high of over 9 million in 2022
The automotive sector struggled with supply chain issues in 2021, primarily a shortage of semiconductor chips, a key element in electric vehicles. However, it appears that OEMs did not constrain the manufacturing of electric vehicles as much as internal combustion engine vehicles, which supported a 108% year-over-year growth in EV sales. In addition to government-backed regulations, high fuel costs and financial incentives supported strong growth in electric vehicle sales in 2021, especially in China and the European Union.